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Topic: 70 Day Test Revisited and how it pertains to our approvals (Read 2153 times)
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acottongim
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As many of y'all I'm sure, I followed Cardinali's foray into the 70 DT with great interest. There was a group of us at the Convention that kept checking for the results during the banquet on Sat night and we were all confused and dismayed when his poor marks were posted. To my knowledge he was the first TK to do the 70 DT here in the US (there was an Impressionist colt that did the 30 DT at the same facility a couple of years ago) as of course we have other performance routes that are available to us.
I know that there were several of us stallion owners who were watching this test with great interest as we were thinking of sending our boys through it in the next year or two. Not only would this satisfy our approval with the ATA, but also with the Verband (if we wanted) and with other registeries (if we wanted to open our books up to outside mares).
After Cardinali's scores came out and after the ensuing "brangle" on COTH, there were some of us that had a bad taste in our mouths and we were questioning the process - was it the horse? was it the barn? was it the scoring system? etc.
2 weeks ago, Cardinali went to Andrew Palmer's to have Andrew complete his performance requirements and take him to an event. I had talked to Andrew last week and specifically asked about how he was doing. I was told that he is a good tempered stallion who was easy to ride and get along with - almost borderline gelding like in the barn area if anything. hmmmm.... that doesn't jive with such a poor "interior" score. So I like to see for myself.  I went to Andrew's yesterday (he is an hour from me) so that I could see my own stallion, ride my gelding, and also see the other horses there - including Cardinali. I was there for about 4 1/2 hours yesterday.
He was out in a paddock when I first got there, just hanging out - no talking to the other horses, no sweating, acting silly etc. He was brought in while we went on a trail ride (which consisted of 3 stallions and 1 gelding... so much for crazy bad tempered trakehners!). When we came back I went in the stall with him - he was munching on his lunch but we were in the stall with him while he ate, petting him and looking him over. He never so much as pinned an ear or swished a tail. He is stalled next to another stallion (in a row of stallions), the stalls are open to each other with bars between them so the horses can see/touch through the bars. There are no stalls in front as it is a shed row type barn. I was in the stall with him for a good 15 mins with no incident and never once had the feeling that I should "be careful" around him. I asked about his movement and Andrew very kindly tacked him up on the spur of the moment so I could see him ridden. He was led to the wash rack (past the other stallion's and gelding's stall windows/head's hanging out) with a lead rope sans chain. He stood on the cross ties while he was tacked up and he was mouthy and wanted to chew on the cross ties/lead rope, but was discouraged from doing so and stopped quickly when told no (btw - typical behavior for a young stallion, and the stopping doing the chewing is a good sign that he will stop doing it). He was tacked up, Andrew hopped right up and off he went. He was rode in a large field away from the barn, near other horses that were in a large paddock near by (and they galloped around in there a bit too), and he also rode him in the arena as well as popped him over some jumps. The horse never took a wrong step or did a wrong thing (I have video clips of the majority of this ride). The "worst" thing he did the entire 45 min ride was ONE time he shook his head and whinnied at the horses in the paddock... Andrew's response was to push him into a bigger trot.
SOOOOOO... how does a horse go from an interior score so bad that he scores in the 40's and fails the test to less than a month later the above described horse? I know drugs are not involved on this end, and while Andrew is remarkable esp with stallions, he isn't THAT good. Did the people at the test "argue" with the stallion and made him "bad"? What happened? My GELDING was more "hyper" than this stallion - seriously, if Andrew had asked if I had wanted to get on this horse I would have happily hopped on and not worried about it. And as a Trakehner owner, who has other options, why on earth should I subject my horse to this test? Do you all, as mare owners, care if I do the 70 DT or performance?
I feel so bad for this horse and his owner as I honestly feel that he was given a very raw deal and I don't care what happens in the future that stigma will always be there of "well that was the crazy tk that did so poorly at his 70 day" heaven help him if he has a bad day at a show or in public! (as they all do on occassion). This also highlights how quickly that a stallion's (or any horse's) reputation can be impacted and how the public's perception can be so far off.
Sorry for the rant, but this has been bothering me since Cardinali got to Andrew's and esp since I saw him yesterday. I know that some of the score issues are related to the bell curve, but really the impact on the reputation on how this horse was portrayed to the public bothers me more than the stupid scoring system (and I do mean that it is a stupid system)....
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Garland
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I saw some of the undersaddle footage and couldn't understand why Cardinali scored lower than the horse that was rooting and sticking his tongue out constantly. Tongue issues are penalized in the dressage ring and are difficult to correct.
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Elfe
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Can somebody explain how the "interior" scores are arrived at ?
Is it the quantification of some subjective opinion ?
Aren't those the ones that screwed this stallion ?
I read the whole COTH thread, could not really grasp how this works.
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acottongim
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Ok, here is my main problem with this whole thing... and let me preface this by saying that I don't know ANY of the people personally (the owner of Cardinali, the people at Silver Creek etc), I've never seen that horse prior to yesterday, and I've never been to Silver Creek - I also did not get to see any of this year's 70 DT live streaming.
From what I've gathered, this horse scored such a low interior score because he was "so bad"... and from the score it would have equated being ungovernable - iow dangerous. (not saying that he is this way - saying that in order to score the score he did it was that bad). So I want someone to explain to me that a horse that scores so low as he did 2 weeks ago (or was it 3 weeks ago now) do a 180 and is the POLAR OPPOSITE of this "monster"?? I honestly do not understand this and the only explanation that makes sense in my mind is that either the facility, traing director or whoever, lied and exagerated his "badness" OR they did something to make him that way... and if that was the case wouldn't he be bad still? My next question on this is what would make me want to send MY horse to this test to have something similar done to him? forget the scores - they don't make sense anyway and bell curves are stupid (I thought they were stupid when they used them in my elementary school).
So can Trakehners not go through this test because (as we all know) they ARE smarter and more "reactive" than the average "dumbblood" and won't tolerate the "crank and spank" philosophy?
I would not be nearly as upset about this if the horse I saw yesterday was not as different from what his scores portrayed (or what was so thinly veiled in innuendo about his temperament as was on COTH). If he was dangerous as all of that I never would have been in his stall walking around him, touching him and petting him etc.
This makes me mad for the owner of the horse, the horse, the owner of his sire, and all of us as Trakehner breeders - because you know what the general public is thinking "those crazy TKs... "
BTW - he had the highest or one of the highest marks for both dressage and x-country at the test by the test riders - how does a horse that bad (ie dangerous) get a high score like that which shows rideablity?
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Elfe
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Because of the bell curve, is it theoretically possible for the same stallion, if he went through the testing twice in different years, to be first once and last the next time, with the same raw scores ?
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Sean
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Theoretically it's possible. It's unlikely but certainly possible.
I think it's clear by reading the COTH thread that not even the testing center representatives have a clear understanding of how everything works in the scoring. The explanations given to certain examples have been based on incorrect assumptions and a misunderstanding of statistics.
Although at this point I don't personally have a stallion I plan to own many in the future. I will not send any through this type of test. Everyone I ever have will compete and if they perform they will remain stallions. If they don't they won't remain stallions very long.
I feel for Cardinali's owner and if I breed this year I will likely be looking to Cardinali. Hopefully Trakehner breeders will rally around him. I also hope that the new leadership will bring new performance requirements to the association
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RockHill
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As it has been explained to me and as I understand it, the bell curve is to some how push for the evolution of breeding better horses. Which might make sense to me if every 4 year old stallion (or other specific age) in North America of the appropriate "breeds" was REQUIRED to be sent to the test. Then it would be the closest thing to comparing apples to apples and attempting to raise the bar on the breeding stallions available as well as having sufficient numbers to make the bell curve function as it is intended to.
Instead here in North America the test is totally optional (not saying it is required anywhere else because I honestly don't know that much), numbers may vary, the age and training level of the stallions may widely vary, and while each stallion may be scored individually it still seems to me that they are competing against each other thanks to the bell curve. The bell curve is also frustrating to me because it is impossible to compare scores from one year to the next. I realize I can ask the stallion owner to provide me with their horse's individual scores but that can be a bit cumbersome. Also, some people upon seeing a low or high score would immediately make a judgement on the horse that may or may not be true given the caliber of the other horse's at that specific test.
I really like the idea of the 70 day test. A fantastic way to get your horse approved as the competition route required for many of the registries (speaking not just for Trakehners) is a lengthy and expensive process. A lot can happen during the process resulting in a stallion being injured or for some other reason unable to compete to the levels needed.
At the convention I was checking my phone every few minutes waiting for the scores to be posted and was dumbfounded when I saw Cardinali's and couldn't believe it was anything but a typo. I had been able to see some of the streaming live video and thought he looked quite nice. Certainly better then some of the others. I can not help but feel that the bell curve did him a tremendous disservice and while I do not own a stallion nor for the foreseeable future do I intend to I don't think I would want to send one through this test after paying as close attention to it as I could this year.
For what it is worth I am aware that what we see on the streaming video may or may not be a perfect reflection of a stallion as was clearly evidenced to me during this test with one of the other stallions, a stallion I know and have ridden prior to his going to the test. However I trust Anissa's opinion of Cardinali and his temperament as she saw him which further baffles me regarding his interior scores.
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Beckie
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So is it just me or is this just another time when the NA Stallion Testing brings more doubt versus more info to the mare owner. This bru-ha tells me.......NADA or maybe....
If your stallion does great...... BRAG. If your stallion does poorly, it could be a single point difference in rideability!?! (BTW, with a multiplier of 15, this is mathematically true and the impact is even greater if only whole numbers are used.)
Sorry guys, my confidence just went down further that this is a realistic test for our horses.... so what next?!? Our current system is also flawed........ The most truthful comment ever made was from Joe P. when he said that the best predicter of your horse's performance results is how much training (and with whom) you have invested in that horse.......
From what I see I do not like the point system used at these tests AT ALL!!! Frankly, it takes too much research to figure out what I am supposed to learn from the score..... Do highly bred Olympians get bad scores on ridability but great scores on ability? What about the toe dragging horse with the perfect interior? Does a high score mean a great ammy horse with good gaits, or a fabulous jumper with multiple personalities?
And does "good ridability" mean a horse that will tolerate a mean or poorly skilled rider? I thought that was what a Beginners Horse was.... Are we stallion testing for Beginners Horses?
What do I get from this other than higher is better? Maybe higher is better for some riders/breeders but lower is good for others based upon your mare.
This is more complicated than handicapping racing!!!
Time to go back to the KISS principle and continue to do my own other research.
My humble advice to breeders....KNOW your mare (faults, strengths, etc)..... STUDY your stallion...... Then roll the dice and breed!!! This stuff only leads to the latest edition of the "Stallion of the Month Club!"  Good luck all....
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Beckie
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And the bell curve nonsense is just that.... If only two points with a large multiplier can affect the curve so much, then the multiplier is either REALLY important or inappropriate. Remember, a good stats person can make numbers say anything that they want them to ... aka numbers lie!!!
And why so many different weights and multipliers? What is the value of the total score if you have to get the raw data to figure out what it means.... just give me the raw data and I will weight what is most important for my mare based upon her strengths/weaknesses......
Nuff said...
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Beckie
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One more thing..... sorry.
The bell curve is designed to push everything to the top of the bell or eliminate outliers.... so, that median had better be THE RIGHT THING!!!!!! If you concentrate your traits around a central point and it turns out to be FLAWED, you are in BIG trouble when you try to move that central point in any direction!!!!
So, we better be breeding the perfect horse for eternity because we are ELIMINATING any variation in traits in our gene pool.... Just a thought!!??
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Maren
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1. As Kim already pointed out, the performance tests are always, also in Cardinali's case, only ONE of hopefully many tests. It is not intended (neither here nor in Germany) as the show all - tell all over the lifetime of a horse. It is simply one step on the way.
2. The system currently used in the US is no longer applicable in Germany. It was changed, mostly because the model did not allow for comparison of stallions from one station to the next. 140 points in Schlieckau could have been 100 points in Adelheitsdorf and vice versa. No comparison - where's the gain?
3. The test per se is a very good thing - it's the flawed human factor (that you will find everywhere, competition included) that makes this a mess.
4. I partially disagree with the comment about the trainer/rider - they do have a big part in it, but an utterly uncooperative horse will show as such under 70 day test conditions (which is why this test where everybody is, in an ideal world, treated equal, is such a gain over pure competition results).
5. From living with 100, 70 and 30 day test scores for all of my horse life, I can tell you what I take out of it: first, I look at the blood content of the horse in question - the higher the % of Tb and Arab impact, the more you have to take everything with a grain of salt. As Carol points out, no horse is the same and a good test station manager very early on sees that and fits his riders to the individual stallions. I've seen this done in Germany, it works. Then, look at the group that the stallion of your choice was up against - in Germany it is often the case that the top sellers from the previous year's approval, horses that have already gone to the Bundeschampionat or been in high demand as breeding stallions end up at only a handful of stations. If the entire Holsteiner show jumper crop shows up at one station (as last seen in Schlieckau just a few weeks ago), and two Trakehners finish in the SJ section with OVER 100 points, then heck yeah, that's a HUGE accomplishment. The same goes the other way! The scores I care least about are the temperament scores - mostly the stations give out generic scores (the usual 8.0) and there is no real telling. I also find that I often have a totally different opinion on "temperament and character" than what seems to score high Hence, I don't care. I care for the test scores much more than the final scores form the last 2 days. Etc etc etc. There are ways to "read" these things.
6. I too hope that the new ATA leadership will really find a solution for the dilemma of performance testing within the ATA community.
7. There are more ways to get full approval status than what carol listed. the qualification to the Bundeschampinat being one for example. Also, you can skip the 30 day test, or do the 30 day test ONLY in combination with BuCha qualification. I'm sure if somebody sat down and thought this threw, there would be equivalent shows found in NA that could match the German requirements (thinking FEI young dressage horse, certain classes at Devon etc).
8. Cardinali is one of the most interesting ATA stallions around today, especially due to the fact that his sire competed at a very good level and his dam is extremely well bred and from a very athletic family. Breeders that turn away from him are short sighted, and that is sadly true for many of the "outside" WB folks. Don't get too upset by stupid comments. Who in the time and age of Gribaldi still thinks that Trakehner "can't compete" against the rest, is a rather ignorant person, IMHO.
9. Annissa, thank you so very much for taking the time to both visit and report back. IÄm not the least bit surprised by your observations!
Just my 2c.
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« Last Edit: December 08, 2010, 11:08:46 AM by Maren »
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acottongim
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Your welcome Maren. This whole thing still disturbs me (from the prospective of a SO and being very aware of MO's perceptions of the boys etc).
He's a nice horse who doesn't deserve the low score IMHO.
As for going up to visit - it isn't a hardship for me at all! LOL. It is a very nice place, the company is wonderful, and I have two horses there, plus there are (including mine and Cardinali) 6 approved TK stallions there so it is nice to see the different bloodlines, stallions etc in their "home" environment.
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