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Topic: Reality Check II (Read 3378 times)
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acottongim
ata
Old Hand
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Posts: 1,435
I love Trakehners!
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Christina... I apologize if anything that I have said offends you or is taken as that way. Not intending to do that at all. Yes, what you wrote initally about seeing the mares did seem to say (and we can blame it on the written word without the nuances of voice and body language to emphasise our true meanings  ) that you were thinking that because the mares/stallions were approved there should not have been an issue with the resulting foals. If that wasn't what was meant then I'm sorry.
As for breeding being a crap shoot - it is to a certain extent. every horse is an individual. We try to produce the best that we can by breeding the best possible mares to the best possible stallions that most compliment them in all respects, but we sometimes still fail. That is why it is important to not just know the bloodlines for who is related to who, but also for what the lines will pass on. To make it a "nice" comparassion (so maybe I won't get jumped on for this LOL) Anduc will put a pretty head on just about everything (not 100% of the time, but a vast majority of the time). I can generally spot an Anduc head a mile away. And it passes on for GENERATIONS... Compare Anduc, Hailo, Impressionist, Preston,and any of Preston's 3 foals and they all have the same head. It blows my mind. So obviously if you want a pretty head, that would generally be a pretty good bet right? that is all I'm saying.
Take full brothers/sisters... they are similiar but they aren't always exactly the same right?? By all rights, if there were no other variables in breeding you would have identical horses. But there are variables, so the resulting offspring are different. Sometimes it is minor, sometimes it is more obvious. My colt, Tate, is similar to Tycoon, but Tate has different movement than Tycoon - not saying one is better than the other, but Tate has more hock/knee action than Tycoon does. Go figure.
I hope that makes sense!
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Laurie
Novice
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Posts: 46
Aim High!
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Ok - I'm about to go mathmatical on everyone.... 
I think the obvious explanation hasn't been mentioned yet: The classic bell curve of most variable situations. I would expect that most breeders and owners plan to keep most of what falls to the "right" of their particular bell curve/desired outcome because we hope that they will be our best breeders and competitors. Those who do not, usually get sold.
As everyone as already stated, you hope that approved x approved = a horse that falls on the right side of the curve. However, statistically speaking there will always be those outliers to both sides of the curve, your model mares and the ones who don't or shouldn't approve. This curve would still happen if it was the same stallion and mare over and over again. That's just statistics.
So I would expect that there are quite a few horses for sale in that left hand side of the bell curve....
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Laurie
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Posts: 46
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I think everyone hopes for the rare, great/lucky deal and like any good shopper is going to look through the "sale rack" first....
However, as you stated, you must be prepared for the imperfections that go along with the "cheaply" priced. However, I don't know that Christina's clients/friends? are necessarily looking in the "cheap" category...
I have seen first hand (many times) people asking market price for a substandard horse. But, that's the sellers prerogative in a Buyer beware market even if those of us who try to price and market responsibly disagree...
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« Last Edit: October 20, 2008, 05:05:29 PM by Laurie »
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Laurie
Novice
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Posts: 46
Aim High!
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Interesting timing...Brad wrote an article on the first page of the ATA newsletter on a very similar subject "What's My Horse Worth"....he's got some good points regarding a horse below average.
"Let's say you have raised a horse that is below average. Below average conformation, below average movement and athleticism, below average performance pedigree. You want and need to sell it. What should you do? Answer: sell it as soon as you can, for whatever price you can get, to someone who will not breed the horse but will take good care of it as a general pleasure mount."
Thoughts???
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« Last Edit: October 21, 2008, 12:20:42 PM by Laurie »
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Lara, Gryphon Farm
ata
Gold Medallist
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Posts: 291
Trakehner Cowgirl
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Well, Maren - you just joined that elite group! Good going and enjoy it, you deserve it more than anyone I know..
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Lara, Gryphon Farm
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Gold Medallist
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Posts: 291
Trakehner Cowgirl
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amen, Kim. I remember when a particularly good, and well-bred stallion was bred to any and all mares willing. As a result, he had lots of kids on the ground of all shapes and breeds, a real shame for the ATA. As a result, he had a reputation of throwing a number of questionable attributes. ps - this is not the stallion you must be thinking, but another CA boy. He is a very good horse, and I don't know what happened to him, can't search him out. His owners were well-meaning, and IMO his blood was very specical. It happens I guess, when folks are wanting to get the most breedings for their stallion.. 
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« Last Edit: November 10, 2008, 06:26:57 AM by Lara, Gryphon Farm »
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stoicfish
FEI
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Posts: 161
I love Trakehners!
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Found this post personally interesting due to me breeding my mare for the first time this year.
Warmbloods are a registry and not a breed, therefore there is a lot of genetic variation in and among the animals. Traks have somewhat of a closed book (only thouroghbreds and arabs, right?) but there is still large phonotypical and genotypical differences among the Traks. I don't think it is a lack of quality in the animals that allows for "off" animals, but simply a high degree of genetic variation. The only way to reduce this is to breed very similar animals for several generations, and culling everything else. That would reduce the size of the bell curve but, I also think it reduces the chances of coming up with an exceptional horses/crosss. Variation and recombination might be a pain when trying to sell babies at a consistent price/profit, but it is what allows us to come up with "the one in a million". It is also the reason why other warmblood groups have results quicker, they get to use whoever, but I am guessing they also have more animals on the left of the bell curve. 
But I believe (I am hugely bias, cause I love my girl) that there is a really solid product in Traks now, and even though they might not be the fad of the day, there is a lot of Trak blood in some very high end animals (the "A" in Argentinus is from his Great Grand Sire- Abglanz). Disproportionally so for the number of registered Traks out there. Sometimes fads and trends/marketing create things that are not always desirable in the near future. Whereas a quality product with intrinsic value will always have a place in the market. I believe the "reality check" is more of a marketing and perception issue than an actual quality issue. I have read many articles/interviews with experienced Hanoverian breeders that warn against breeding for just dressage or just jumping, and recommend breeding for all around athleticism and letting the exceptional animals “happen
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« Last Edit: November 29, 2008, 11:55:01 PM by stoicfish »
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